He Ju invests in the army: hold fast for technology stocks to wait for “cycle bull”
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Original title: He Ju Invests in the Army: Hold on to technology stocks and wait for the “cycle cow” ⊙ Reporter Chen 玥 ○ Editor Wang Chengcheng has gone in 2019, but from the perspective of some professional investors, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index 2441 is likely to become aThe beginning of the round structural slow bull.
Into 2020, this round of bull market has reached the second stage.
Yu Jun, an executive partner of Heju Investment, believes that the slow bull market is divided into two phases: the first phase is the first half of 2019, and the market price structure is mainly based on the value consumer sector, supplemented by the technology growth sector.
The second stage entered the market of science and technology growth sector, electronics, computer, semiconductor chip and other industries one after another.
The third phase is a cyclical bull market, which may come sometime in mid-2020 or even later.
At this point, the market has entered a comprehensive bull market.
”Based on this judgment, technology stocks will remain the main battlefield in the first half of 2020.
Yu Jun said, but while keeping a close eye on technology stocks, keep in mind that cyclical stocks are the last big opportunity in this round of bull market and need to wait patiently.
Where are the core assets of science and technology?
After rising in the second half of 2019, the technology growth sector is just being replaced?
Yu Jun believes that in the first half of 2020, especially in the first quarter, the main battlefield of the market is the counter-cyclical industries and sectors that are growing in science and technology.
”Specifically, the first is 5G, including semiconductor chips, semiconductor equipment, communication equipment, 5G applications, etc.
Its core is the promotion of IoT application scenarios in the context of 5G, including intelligent driving and networking of new energy vehicles, industrial IoT, distributed photovoltaics, and ubiquitous smart grids.
“Yu Jun said that these major industries have reached an important point of transformation. 5G business will gradually be rolled out in 2020, and some application scenarios have also been launched.
In addition, these industries are currently relatively leading industries in the world. They have certain competitiveness and will become one of the core strengths of the “tech cow”.
Another force that supports the “tech cow” lies in information innovation projects. Yu Jun believes that domestic computer software and hardware and system integration companies will usher in a great opportunity.
In addition, some industries and fields in the technology growth sector will perform, such as certain military industries and high-end equipment, new materials, media games, and so on.
Cyclical stocks will usher in a full-blown market. The market is constantly evolving, and the “cycle bull” that is expected will appear in a specific form?
”When the CPI starts to decline and interest rates begin to decline substantially, and the economy continues to stabilize and improve, the overall market price of cyclical stocks will begin, which may be in mid-2020 or later.
Yu Jun said.
He believes that there are many types of cyclical stocks. After years of de-capacity, the profit stability of many cement and chemical companies has greatly improved, and they have been regarded as value cyclical stocks.
Some industries are leading in scale and technology in the world, such as private large-scale refining, glass fiber, vitamins, etc., can be considered as growth cycle stocks.
“The triggers for the rise of different types of cyclical stocks are different and cannot be generalized.
According to Yu Jun, the main restructuring industry is still at the bottom of profit, and it is necessary to wait for the profit of relevant listed companies to improve.
Financial real estate, securities companies, and insurance have some room for growth. Due to increased concentration and business innovation, banks and real estate stocks may even have investment opportunities involved.
He also reminded that in the three stages of this round of bull market, 武汉夜生活网 the technology growth sector may be continuous, and it is necessary to pay attention to the long-term nature of high-quality growth stocks and the periodic opportunities of cyclical stocks.