In the first two months of the year, there was zero substantial growth in the society. How do you view the subsequent trend of the consumer market？
In the first two months of the year, there was zero substantial growth in the society. How do you view the subsequent trend of the consumer market?
As one of the “troikas” driving the growth of the national economy, consumption has been the main “booster” for economic growth for six consecutive years.However, due to the impact of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic, consumption was hindered.Data released recently by the National Bureau of Statistics show that in the first two months of this year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods (hereinafter referred to as social zero overall) declined by 20 each year.5%. How to view the subsequent trend of the consumer market? Sauna, Yewang interviewed Zhao Ping, director of the International Trade Research Department of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade and Fu Yifu, a senior expert at Suning Financial Research Institute. Sauna Night Net: How to view the subsequent trend of the consumer market? Zhao Ping: The epidemic is not over yet, so some consumer demand will be suppressed, certain scales of dinner, cultural and sports activities, etc.But after the epidemic is over, consumption will inevitably return to its normal growth trajectory. Based on the experience of the SARS period, I judge that the impact of the epidemic on consumption may be higher than the impact on GDP.In 2003, the GDP growth rate was 10.0%, an increase of 0 from the previous year.9 digits, but the company ‘s growth rate is only 9.1%, a decrease of 2 from the previous year.Seven digits, even lower than the GDP growth rate of the year. First of all, I think the recovery of the entire macro economy will be faster than that of consumption.Also referring to the SARS period, although the growth rate of the zero volume of the company decreased in 2003, the growth rate returned to 13.3%.Therefore, after this epidemic complex, it may take 3-6 months for consumption to gradually return to the normal growth range. Fu Yifu: The epidemic has put pressure on the growth of the consumer market.However, the negative growth of social zero spending does not mean that the consumption of residents is weak. Many people’s consumer demand has only been delayed and has not disappeared. After SARS in 2003, social consumption ushered in a clear and rapid rebound.In addition, the economic strength and economic environment of developing countries are completely different from 2003. At present, the overall per capita GDP has exceeded 10,000 US dollars. From this perspective, we are actually closer to the international high-income countries.At the same time, the average Internet in 2003 was still in the enlightenment stage, but now online shopping, live broadcasting, online education, online medical care, etc. have developed and become more comprehensive and thoroughly penetrate the consumer’s life scene. Therefore, after the new coronary pneumonia epidemic is completely controlled, social consumption will usher in a considerable rebound.At the same time, the resumption of production at the production end is being promoted in an all-round way. If we take some better preventive measures, the gradual consumption data should not be very bad, and even the original expectations can be achieved. Sauna, Ye Wang, Pan Yichun, editor Wang Yu, Sun Yong proofreading Chen Diyan